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Wednesday: ADP Employment, Trade Deficit, ISM Service, Beige Book

Calculated Risk - Tue, 06/03/2014 - 15:45
From Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed Officials Growing Wary of Market Complacency
[M]easures of risk aversion and market volatility show an especially striking sense of investor calm. The VIX, which tracks expected stock-market fluctuations based on options trading, has gone 74 straight weeks below its long-run average—a run of steadiness not seen since 2006 and 2007.
New York Fed President William Dudley warned in a question-and-answer session after a speech last month that he was nervous that unusually low volatility in markets was breeding too much risk-taking.
"Complacency" may be a problem, but this isn't 2006 and 2007. In January 2007 I predicted a recession would start that year as a result of the housing bust (made it by one month since the recession started in December 2007!).  Now - I don't see a recession any time soon.

• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, the ADP Employment Report for May. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 210,000 payroll jobs added in May, down from 220,000 in April.

• At 8:30 AM, the Trade Balance report for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $41.0 billion in April from $40.4 billion in March.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for May. The consensus is for a reading of 55.3, up from 55.2 in April. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion.

• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.


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by Dr. Radut