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Schedule for Week of July 6th

Calculated Risk - Sat, 07/05/2014 - 05:37
This will be a very light week for economic data.

----- Monday, July 7th -----
No economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, July 8th -----
7:30 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey 10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for May from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

In April, the number of job openings (yellow) were up 17% year-over-year compared to April 2013, and Quits were up 11% year-over-year.

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for May from the Federal Reserve.  The consensus is for credit to increase $17.5 billion.

----- Wednesday, July 9th-----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes for the Meeting of June 17-18, 2014.

----- Thursday, July 10th -----
Early: Trulia Price Rent Monitors for June. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 316 thousand from 315 thousand.

10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for May. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in inventories.

At 4:30 PM, Speech by Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, Financial Sector Reform, At the Martin Feldstein Lecture, hosted by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts

----- Friday, July 11th -----
2:00 PM ET: The Monthly Treasury Budget Statement for June.

Free Basic Video Introduction to Revit

What Revit Wants - Sat, 07/05/2014 - 04:39
Al Gore has posted 2.5 hours of free Revit tutorials for beginners over at:
Learn REVIT - REVIT FAMILIES AND COMPONENTS

He provides these starter files:
 and describes how to navigate and manipulate the model starting from here.


The videos include more advanced topics as your proceed through the series, including items related to documentation (not just modelling).

According to Al, over they years they have:
"put together a strategy, from many different sources, on how to draft in Revit. Now we have created a system to teach people that strategy. Through teaching hundreds of students and many professional we understand their sticking points, where they go wrong, and what they struggle with. So for the beginner in Revit I am very happy with what we have put together and think it will be of great value."

Categories: Revit/BIM

The Kids are Alright: Living in Dorms counted as Living in Parents' Home

Calculated Risk - Fri, 07/04/2014 - 17:53
An interesting point from Derek Thompson at the Atlantic: The Misguided Freakout About Basement-Dwelling Millennials
More than 15.3 million twentysomethings—and half of young people under 25—live "in their parents’ home," according to official Census statistics.

There's just one problem with those official statistics. They're criminally misleading. When you read the full Census reports, you often come upon this crucial sentence:
It is important to note that the Current Population Survey counts students living in dormitories as living in their parents' home
.

Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama

Calculated Risk - Fri, 07/04/2014 - 12:01
By request, here is an update on an earlier post through the June employment report.

Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was smaller in the '80s, so a different comparison might be to look at the percentage change.   Of course the participation rate was increasing in the '80s (younger population and women joining the labor force), and the participation rate is declining now.  But these graphs give an overview of employment changes.

First, here is a table for private sector jobs. The top two private sector terms were both under President Clinton.  Reagan's 2nd term saw about the same job growth as during Carter's term. Note: There was a severe recession at the beginning of Reagan's first term (when Volcker raised rates to slow inflation) and a recession near the end of Carter's term (gas prices increased sharply and there was an oil embargo).

TermPrivate Sector
Jobs Added (000s)
Carter9,041
Reagan 15,360
Reagan 29,357
GHW Bush1,510
Clinton 110,885
Clinton 210,070
GW Bush 1-841
GW Bush 2379
Obama 11,998
Obama 213,477
1Seventeen months into 2nd term

The first graph shows the change in private sector payroll jobs from when each president took office until the end of their term(s). President George H.W. Bush only served one term, and President Obama is in the second year of his second term.

Mr. G.W. Bush (red) took office following the bursting of the stock market bubble, and left during the bursting of the housing bubble. Mr. Obama (blue) took office during the financial crisis and great recession. There was also a significant recession in the early '80s right after Mr. Reagan (yellow) took office.

There was a recession towards the end of President G.H.W. Bush (purple) term, and Mr Clinton (light blue) served for eight years without a recession.

Private Sector Payrolls Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph is for private employment only.

The employment recovery during Mr. G.W. Bush's (red) first term was very sluggish, and private employment was down 841,000 jobs at the end of his first term.   At the end of Mr. Bush's second term, private employment was collapsing, and there were net 462,000 private sector jobs lost during Mr. Bush's two terms. 

Private sector employment increased slightly under President G.H.W. Bush (purple), with 1,510,000 private sector jobs added.

Private sector employment increased by 20,955,000 under President Clinton (light blue), by 14,717,000 under President Reagan (yellow), and 9,041,000 under President Carter (dashed green).

There were only 1,998,000 more private sector jobs at the end of Mr. Obama's first term.  Seventeen months into Mr. Obama's second term, there are now 5,475,000 more private sector jobs than when he initially took office.

Public Sector Payrolls A big difference between the presidencies has been public sector employment.  Note the bumps in public sector employment due to the decennial Census in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010. 

The public sector grew during Mr. Carter's term (up 1,304,000), during Mr. Reagan's terms (up 1,414,000), during Mr. G.H.W. Bush's term (up 1,127,000), during Mr. Clinton's terms (up 1,934,000), and during Mr. G.W. Bush's terms (up 1,744,000 jobs).

However the public sector has declined significantly since Mr. Obama took office (down 671,000 jobs). These job losses have mostly been at the state and local level, but more recently at the Federal level.  This has been a significant drag on overall employment.

And a table for public sector jobs. Public sector jobs declined the most during Obama's first term, and increased the most during Reagan's 2nd term.

TermPublic Sector
Jobs Added (000s)
Carter1,304
Reagan 1-24
Reagan 21,438
GHW Bush1,127
Clinton 1692
Clinton 21,242
GW Bush 1900
GW Bush 2844
Obama 1-713
Obama 2142
1Seventeen months into 2nd term

Looking forward, I expect the economy to continue to expand for the next few years, so I don't expect a sharp decline in private employment as happened at the end of Mr. Bush's 2nd term (In 2005 and 2006 I was warning of a coming recession due to the bursting of the housing bubble).

A big question is when the public sector layoffs will end.  It appears the cutbacks are over at the state and local levels in the aggregate, but there are ongoing cutbacks at the Federal level.  Right now I'm expecting some increase in public employment in 2014, but nothing like what happened during Reagan's second term.

This Universal Bike Can Be Adjusted to Fit Any Body

Inhabitat - Fri, 07/04/2014 - 12:00

A bicycle that fits your body properly is an absolute pleasure to ride, but many people just don’t buy the bike that’s right for them. Alternately, they’ll buy one that’s right for their height, but won’t adjust the seat, bars, etc. to suit their own individual proportions, and end up setting the bicycle aside because it’s not comfortable enough to use on a regular basis. Enter the Universal Bike created by Brooklyness. With its carbon fiber adjustable frame, the makers of this fabulous ergonomic bicycle aim to bring all the benefits of a custom-built bike to a greater percentage of the population.

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Categories: Building Green

Quick Start: Communication Failure with Install Now

Up and Ready - Fri, 07/04/2014 - 11:46
Here are some known issues that causing a Communication Failure: 1. Ports used and Internet Speed http://upandready.typepad.com/up_and_ready/2013/04/general-installation-installing-autodesk-products-from-web-with-install-now-option.html 2. Double clicking on the installer file. http://upandready.typepad.com/up_and_ready/2013/05/install-now-doesnt-not-mean-install-later.html 3. Running Setup.exe from the "wi" folder. http://upandready.typepad.com/up_and_ready/2014/06/tip-cautodesk-folder-and-install-now.html David Lau
Categories: Navisworks, Revit/BIM

Solar Panel-Carrying Donkeys Are Bringing Energy to Remote Turkish Nomads

Inhabitat - Fri, 07/04/2014 - 10:30

How are you meant to charge your phone regularly or stay up to date on global events if you live in the middle of nowhere? Well, in parts of Turkey, you can rely on donkeys. These energy-carrying animals have solar panels on their backs, and as they travel around, are allowing local nomads to plug in and surf the web.

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Categories: Building Green

Revit and Satch

RevitOpEd - Fri, 07/04/2014 - 10:00
The other day I mentioned that I generally include at least a few tracks of Joe Satriani's music in a playlist for walk-in music at conferences. I find his music is particularly conducive to spending hours pecking away at a project and Revit. I've been up late working on something just a little longer so I can hear one more tune.

I generally just let his albums play through without concerning myself about assembling them or any particular tracks into any coherent order. I recently decided to create a Spotify playlist that assembled some of my favorites, a time to crank some Revit list. My short list ended up with 24 tracks spanning 15 albums (2 hours worth of material written over almost 20 years), at least one track from each album.

For the most part they all groove, drive forward without too much quiet time or lulls. There are lots of tracks to choose from for that too but for working...driving, grooving works best for me.

Speaking of driving. When I visit clients in San Diego or Los Angeles that means at least a couple of quality hours in the car (or train) for music. There are some tracks that I've listened to together long enough that they don't sound finished unless they play together no matter the situation.

It's kind of like what radio did with Journey's two hit songs Feeling That Way and Anytime or Jackson Browne's Load Out and Stay. They played them together so often that it's like they are really one song. I think DJ's called that grouping "bathroom breaks", combined they played long enough to let them sneak away without the fear of dead air. In this list I purposely didn't put them next to each other just to see if I could cope.

Check out Satch!

Whadya think?
Categories: Revit/BIM

Easy-to-Install Drain Mod Harvests Waste-Heat from Hot Water to Slash Energy Costs

Inhabitat - Fri, 07/04/2014 - 09:00

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When it comes to home efficiency, the bathroom is often where we focus on water conservation. Most bathrooms contain a sink, toilet, and shower, which can each waste tons of water if we’re not careful, but a Montreal-based company took another look, and realized that most of us are letting something equally important escape down the shower drain: energy. EcoDrain is a gadget that aims to drastically reduce home energy costs by recycling the heat energy of the already-warm water flowing down your shower drain. It’s not unlike many waste-heat recovery systems we’ve covered in the past, but what makes EcoDrain unique is that it works on a small scale that can have a big impact on our personal utility bills.

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Categories: Building Green

Fire in the Sky: Devastation in the Shalefields

Inhabitat - Fri, 07/04/2014 - 08:30

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Natural gas flaring is basically another excuse for the oil and gas industry to avoid proper regulation and do whatever they want in order to make more money. Releasing dangerous toxins into the atmosphere via giant flames in the sky, flaring burns unwanted sour gas that is not economical for the the gas industry to capture. Unfortunately, it also endangers both human health and the health of the environment, causing headaches, and adding heaping greenhouse gas emissions to the sky, pushing the climate change train onward down the tracks.

Gas Flares Gas Flare at Carrizo Well Site EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy Addressing Crowd Outside Chicago


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Categories: Building Green

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by Dr. Radut