Well, it was a good run (ha!) while it lasted. However, I find their reasoning for the downturn - well, flawed. In the report, the AIA infers the downturn could possibly be due to the warm weather... then goes on to give the regional averages: Northeast (51.0), Midwest (50.1), South (49.0), West (48.0)
Here's the problem with blaming the weather - the warm weather was on the eastern side of the country. West of the Mississippi the weather was more on average than not, yet that is where the largest decline is shown. Given that they are a 3-month average, I can't figure out how the weather can be the causal factor here.
I am somewhat disturbed by the "spin" the MSM media has put on the economy as of late. The word "recovery" is simply not appropriate here. The various line charts showing "recovery" are only on the upswing due to the fact that we are long enough into this recession that it is affecting the "average". Unemployment is down, but only because fewer people are counted as "in the workforce". Many have given up looking.
In what I see here, there has been little movement in real projects - one way or the other - in some time. Emotions have been up and down, hope building and then fading just as quickly - but the number of actual projects are relatively stable. And few.
From the AIA:
Architecture Billings Index Reverts to Negative Territory
Decline is possibly a brief pause from unusually strong winter activity
For immediate release:
Washington, D.C. – May 16, 2012 – After five months of positive readings, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has fallen into negative terrain. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the April ABI score was 48.4, following a mark of 50.4 in March. This score reflects a decrease in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 54.4, down from mark of 56.6 the previous month.